Table 6 Log-linear trend regression of fiscal space indicators (independent variable: time)

Real GDP

15.30***

(−0.043)

0.358***

(−0.064)

0.678***

(−0.064)

1.055***

(−0.058)

Central tax revenue

11.85***

(−0.089)

0.870***

(−0.133)

1.510***

(−0.133)

2.107***

(−0.122)

Central nontax revenue

11***

(−0.14)

0.2

(−0.207

1***

(−0.207)

1.286***

(−0.191)

State tax revenue

11.67***

(−0.098)

0.747***

(−0.145)

1.522***

(−0.145)

2.222***

(−0.134)

State nontax revenue

10.34***

(−0.085)

0.686***

(−0.127)

1.216***

(−0.127)

1.819***

(−0.117)

Grants from the centre

10.52***

(−0.116)

0.883***

(−0.173)

1.570***

(−0.173)

2.481***

(−0.159)

Share in central tax

10.84***

(−0.109)

0.829***

(−0.161

1.565***

(−0.161)

2.461***

(−0.148)

Developmental expenditure

12.67***

(−0.096)

0.666***

(−0.142)

1.478***

(−0.142)

2.144***

(−0.131)

Non-developmental expenditure

12.58***

(−0.082)

0.566***

(−0.123)

1.206***

(−0.123)

1.856***

(−0.113)

Public health expenditure

9.921***

(−0.086)

0.442***

(−0.128)

1.140***

(−0.128)

2.084***

(−0.118)

Subsidies

10.35***

(−0.14)

0.730***

(−0.208)

1.874***

(−0.208)

2.194***

(−0.191)

Defence expenditure

10.83***

(−0.063)

0.559***

(−0.094)

1.205***

(−0.094)

1.680***

(−0.0863)

Administrative services

10.12***

(−0.087)

0.460***

(−0.13)

1.230***

(−0.13)

1.910***

(−0.119)

Pension services

10.28***

(−0.106)

0.633***

(−0.157)

1.476***

(−0.157)

2.261***

(−0.144)

Interest payments

11.53***

(−0.078)

0.408***

(−0.116)

0.999***

(−0.116)

1.645***

(−0.106)

Gross fiscal deficit

12.23***

(−0.088)

0.235*

(−0.131)

1.154***

(−0.131)

1.677***

(−0.12)

External debt

12.15***

(−0.058)

0.108

(−0.086)

0.490***

(−0.086)

0.915***

(−0.079)

Domestic debt

14.24***

(−0.095)

0.690***

(−0.142)

1.292***

(−0.142)

2.012***

(−0.131)